WORLD EXCLUSIVE: You heard it here first…Rogowska versus Ferguson in one semi final and Molik versus Dokic in the other semi final.
For the 2011 Australian Open Women’s singles main draw Australian women only wild card play-off www.OnCourtAdvantage.com world exclusive provides a world exclusive for the semi final scenarios. This post covers who will play whom and the current status of the potential semi finalists.
As mentioned in our earlier posts covering these play-offs, there is a formula used for both the ATP Tour Finals won by Roger Federer this year and the WTA Tour Finals won by Kim Clijsters this year, which is used to work out who the semi finalists are after the round robin events are completed.
In 3 of the 4 groups at these play-offs this complex formula was not needed to verify who won those groups due to one player being undefeated, so winning all 3 matches. The Blue Group was won by Alicia Molik, the Magenta Group was won by Jelena Dokic and the Yellow Group will be won by whoever prevails in the battle of the two undefeated players (Jessica Moore and Olivia Rogowska), who are battling it out right now on Court 6 at Melbourne Park in Australia.
The Green Group is where the formula may come into place if Isabella Holland can defeat Sophie Ferguson who are playing on court 7 right now. See details below.
The scenario as it stands right now is:
Name win-loss…sets won-lost… games won-lost
- No.1 seed Alicia Molik 3-0………6-1…………..40-21=%65.5 winner of the Blue Group
- No.3 seed Jelena Dokic 3-0……..6-1…………..39-23=%62.9 winner of the Magenta Group
- No.2 seed Sophie Ferguson 2-0…4-2…..33-28=%54.0
- Monika Wejnert 2-1……………….5-2…..36-23=%61.0
- No.8 seed Isabella Holland 1-1….2-2….16-21=%43.2
- If Holland wins in straight sets then Wejnert will qualify for the semi finals by winning 5 sets versus Holland’s 4.
- If Ferguson loses in 3 sets but wins more games overall than she loses she has a chance to overtake Wejnert’s superior games won-lost percentage, which is %61 to Ferguson’s %54 before Ferguson’s last match.
- If Ferguson defeats Holland she will qualify ahead of Wejnert with 3 match wins versus 2.
Currently Molik is in 1st place ahead of Dokic via her superior games won-lost percentage which is %65.5 to Dokic’s %62.9 as both player’s are tied on 3 wins each and 6 sets won and both dropping just the 1 set.
- No.4 seed Jessica Moore 2-0…….4-0……24-12=%66.6
- No.5 seed Olivia Rogowska 2-0…4-0……24-12=%66.6
Once these two matches are complete we will announce who pays whom in the semi finals BEFORE anyone else does at the TOP and bottom of this post.
Ferguson just won the 1st set 7-5, placing her 1 more set away from winning the Green Group. If she loses in 3 sets then her sets won and lost percentage will NOT be enough for her to edge out Wejnert for the semi final berth. Unless the walk over set that Wejnert received in today’s 2nd set against Ashling Sumner is not counted as a set (technically) won by Wejnert, which is unlikely to be the case. Ferguson losing in 3 sets would leave her at 5 sets won to 4 sets lost versus Wejnert who finished with 5 sets won and only 2 sets lost. Ferguson won 7-5 6-3 so wins the Green Group.
Here is the updated status of the 3 semi finalists thus far:
Name win-loss sets won-lost games won-lost
- 1st place is No.1 seed Alicia Molik 3-0………..6-1……40-21=%65.5 winner of the Blue Group
- 2nd pace is No.3 seed Jelena Dokic 3-0………6-1……39-23=%62.9 winner of the Magenta Group
- 3rd place is No.2 seed Sophie Ferguson 3-0….6-2…..46-36=%56.0 winner of the Green Group
So far this would mean Molik plays Ferguson and Dokic plays Rogowska OR Moore as Molik in 1st place would play 4th place Ferguson who lost 2 sets whereas Dokic, Rogowska OR Moore would finish with 6 sets to love or 6 sets to one at worst with their final round robin records.
THE LATEST is that Rogowska won 7-5 6-3 to be the final player to advance to the semi finals. SO…Rogowska versus Ferguson in one semi final and Molik versus Dokic in the other semi final. This is because 1st place overall plays 4th place and 2nd place plays 3rd place. Rogowska has the best sets won and lost %100 (won all 6 sets) and Ferguson has the lowest at %75 (6 out of 8 sets won). Molik and Dokic are tied for wins – 3 each and sets 6-1 each but, Molik finishes 2nd due to a higher % of games won versus lost at %65.5 to Dokic’s %62.9.
The final standings for the 4 semi finalists are:
Name win-loss sets won-lost games won-lost
- 1st place is No.5 seed Olivia Rogowska 3-0……….6-0…………….37-20=%64.9 winner of the Yellow Group
- 2nd place is No.1 seed Alicia Molik 3-0…………….6-1……………..40-21=%65.5 winner of the Blue Group
- 3rd pace is No.3 seed Jelena Dokic 3-0……………..6-1……………..39-23=%62.9 winner of the Magenta Group
- 4th place is No.2 seed Sophie Ferguson 3-0……….6-2……………..46-36=%56.0 winner of the Green Group
For more details about the 2011 Australian Open, the prize money and ranking points awarded for each round and the schedule of play for the entire tournament click here.
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